Street Fighter NFTs on WAX— My personal market analysis
Street Fighter NFTs finally launched on WAX after months and months of waiting, some folks in the WAX community even started to doubt that it would ever launch. But now it’s here, and damn, it hit with a hard power.
The initial sale had 2 options, Standard pack with 10 NFTs for $9.99, or Ultimate pack with 60 NFTs for $49.99. The sale was open for 24 hours between 18/2 — 18:00 CET and 19/2 — 18:00 CET. There was no pack limit outside of this time limit, and once the 24 hours had passed, no more packs will ever be sold or created. Which resulted in a sale that passed $2,000,000.
The Street Fighter packs contain random Build cards. Which can then upgraded by combining 2 of the same type of build card. E.g. combining two Ryu will provide you with a random upgraded Ryu (Base > Collector Edition). Each of these crafted versions can then be upgraded with additional Build card. Which means a power 5 needs 6 build cards in total.
At the time of writing (3 days after sale) folks have opened a total of 20953 (59.2%) Ultimate packs 11209 (41.4%) Standard packs. Which means 1,357,180 ( 54.9% ) Build cards have been minted and 939,233 (69%) have been burnt for upgrade.
With the amount of packs sold, if all are opened there will be a total of 2,471,610 minted build cards spread out over all the 40 different characters. Considering the data over the last three days, most people seem to want to upgrade their build cards for a chance of one of the more rare upgrades (Action & Collector Edition). These are already listed and bought way above the market price of any other upgraded version.
My View on the current market
Let’s dig into how I view the current market, where it is and where it is heading. Remember that this is an opinion piece and if you do any trades based on this, those are on you.
There has been over 11.8M wax traded in the last few days, with over 70,000 transfer of Street Fighter NFTs in the last 24 hours.
The packs are already trading at a premium, and I do believe this will continue to be the case.
Standard packs: $19–190% based on primary sale
Ultimate packs: $105–210% based on primary sale
In the past, we have seen some of the bigger named brands going up in the thousands of percentile of increase in value. This could likely be the case of the Street Fighter packs as well, considering the size of the brand and interest of the community.
If you are lucky enough to get a Collectors Edition NFT, you basically won the lottery. The same can be said if you were quick at opening your packs and doing the first upgrades and got a low mint number. The Mint number represent the order they have been created, where the #1 is the first ever created of that type.
What would be considered a low mint depends on the size of the collectors community, those that want to complete full sets of the NFTs, or stack up and own many of some (that’s me :D ). On smaller size releases most often the #1–10 is what matters, but we have seen on GPK series 1 that up to 50 — 100 is still considered a good mint number and trade with a premium.
In the case of Street Fighter, we have a special mechanic that impacts price that I think many of the current collectors have missed. I base this assumption on the first two days of trading… The Build cards are more valuable than most of the upgraded versions. As of now, 69% of all minted build cards have been burnt for upgrade. Many of the low mint builds are gone, which means that my #20 poison build card is actually the 7th lowest minted build card that still exist. Because mint 1–5 and 7–14 have all been burnt in upgrades.
This actually means that lowest 100 existing mints are in the hundreds, as seen with one of my F.A.N.G, #369 from the packs, but currently the #99 lowest mint still existing:
For someone that aims to collect the most valuable set of a rarity, the mint number will be the most important factor. The lower the mint, the higher speculated value that NFT will have, and the more valuable your set will be considered. these are the reasons behind why I have been sweeping up a nice build set over the last few days.
I do believe that build cards, specially the low mint ones, will sustain value better than most of the upgraded versions, exceptions being action and collectors edition. What I also believe is that build cards that can be upgraded to Collector editions, are likely going to stay at a higher valuation than those that are not.
If you get a Chun Li or Ryu, you might consider keeping that build card because they are already listed at a way higher price compared to anything else.
What would really add onto the valuation of these packs and NFTs is if the Street Fighter team, or another project on WAX adds value to the Series 1 NFT holders. Since these are NFTs, they can be incorporated into games and other schemes by other projects. Perhaps we will even see an official Street Fighter game on WAX??? — We can dream ❤
What could negatively impact the price of the SF packs is if the community is not growing, or if they find interest in something else and a lot of holders want to leave the Street Fighter market at the same time. We have seen this in the past where the ratio between collectors and traders have been off and there are more sellers than buyers.
What could really kill the value is if most of the buyers bought to make a quick buck and intend to sell it asap. That can easily result in a flooded market, we have seen this with projects in the past where the majority of buyers want to liquidate their collection in time for the next NFT release. They never wanted to hold anything but rather wanted to make money.
Best situation is when we have a bunch of traders adding liquidity to the market and collectors swooping up the NFTs to reduce available supply. Let’s hope that is what we will see in the near future.
I’m a happy NFT trader that live and breath the WAX ecosystem, I have made the wrong calls and also made the right ones over the last 8 months. With this experience of the ecosystem I hope I was able to give you some insight, if not in the market, at least into one of the active traders, collectors and community member that I am.
I do believe that packs, build cards (specially those that can become CE), Collectors Editions and Action Street fighter NFTs are those that will keep and sustain the best value over time. This is where I personally put my money, as you can see in my accounts. If you have been following my content for a bit, I am sure you know which accounts are mine WAX, if not, you can locate them from the above information.
Feel free to engage with me on twitter or in one of the WAX telegram channels. I’m everywhere…
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Anders — Anyobservation
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